City Manager’s Report
For week ending Jan. 22, 2021
How likely is death from COVID-19 compared to death from flu (in a year)?
There are two apparent ways to look at it: #1 Deaths per total U.S. population or #2 Deaths per Total Disease Cases.
COVID-19 #1. .00156 COVID-19 projected deaths (by the end of March) per US population in one calendar year
(500,000 projected by March/320m)
COVID-19 #2. 500,000 projected deaths by the end of March/23,773,919 US COVID-19 cases = .02103145 (2.1%)
Flu #1. .00013 Flu deaths in a year per an average of the normal yearly flu deaths in the United States
Average range of deaths per year 12K-61K (or mean average 42.5K), so 42.5K/320m
Flu #2 42.5K flu death per year 9m-45m flu cases per year:
42.5K/31.5m = .00135
COVID-19 #2 .02103145/Flu #2 .00135 = 15.58
So, how much more likely is a U.S. citizen to die from COVID-19 than the flu in a given year?
00156/.00013 = 12 times greater than the flu as a measure of the entire US population divided by total projected U.S. deaths from COVID-19. Or, considering deaths from COVID-19 cases against total U.S. COVID-19 cases (.02103145) divided yearly deaths from the flu against total epidemiologically projected yearly cases of the flu (.00135), which is 15.58 times more likely.
It looks to me like a reasonable range of the likelihood of death from COVID-19 compared to the flu is 12 to 15.58 times greater, depending on how you look at it. You may all correct my math and look at it your own way. Of course, none of this accounts for long-haulers’ syndrome. (Cases of flu, however, are greatly reduced this year.)
Temporary Signs Provisions. For decades, both the State of Washington and the City of Normandy Park have placed 10 day limits on the duration that political signs can be up after elections. Due to Reed v. Scottsdale, a U.S. Supreme decision, in recent years this 10 day limit no longer applies because local and state jurisdictions in the United States may no longer regulate by sign content (city codes can’t name the type of sign); however, cities may regulate by size, duration and location. So, currently, all temporary signs may be displayed not longer than 31 days per NPMC 18.30.040 General Provisions (8), which is available on the city website under Government. Per NPMC 18.30.060, this 31 day provision applies to residential areas.
– Mark E. Hoppen, City Manager
City of Normandy Park
801 SW 174th Street
Normandy Park, WA 98166
(206) 248-8246 (Direct Phone)